Will Moon Jae-in win South Korea's upcoming presidential election?
Started
May 2, 2017 05:00PM
Closed May 9, 2017 06:59AM (8 years ago)
Closed May 9, 2017 06:59AM (8 years ago)
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South Koreans will go to the polls on 9 May 2017 to elect their new president (NY Times). Moon Jae-in ran for president in 2012, losing narrowly to Park Geun-hye. He is now the presumed front runner (NY Times, Reuters).
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This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 9 May 2017 (NY Times).
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 9 May 2017 (NY Times).
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98.00% | |
| No | 2.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 61 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 125 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 90 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 349 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - May 2, 2017 10:00AM PDT (6 days before close, question was 0% complete)