The Monkey Cage asks
Will Rex Tillerson be confirmed by the Senate as secretary of state before 30 April 2017?
Started
Dec 27, 2016 06:00PM
Closed Feb 1, 2017 06:00PM (8 years ago)
Closed Feb 1, 2017 06:00PM (8 years ago)
Challenges
This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 1 February 2017 (NY Times).
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President-elect Trump has announced ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson as his pick for secretary of state. Tillerson's ties to Russia have led to criticism of his nomination by both Republicans and Democrats (Washington Post, Politico)." Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether the DAPA program will be implemented before inauguration day or on Trump's Immigration Ban.
President-elect Trump has announced ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson as his pick for secretary of state. Tillerson's ties to Russia have led to criticism of his nomination by both Republicans and Democrats (Washington Post, Politico)." Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether the DAPA program will be implemented before inauguration day or on Trump's Immigration Ban.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99.00% | |
| No | 1.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 817 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 125 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1310 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 349 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Dec 27, 2016 10:00AM PST (36 days before close, question was 0% complete)