Will Ethiopia be under a state of emergency as of 1 May 2017?
Started
Dec 6, 2016 06:00PM
Closed May 1, 2017 06:59AM (8 years ago)
Closed May 1, 2017 06:59AM (8 years ago)
In response to more than a year of protests, Ethiopia declared a six-month nationwide state of emergency on 8 October 2016 (Al Jazeera).
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If you liked this question, try forecasting on whether there will be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before the end of the year or on the next state to experience anti-government mass protests in the Arab world.
This question was closed as "yes, nationwide" with an end date of 1 May 2017. In March 2017, the Ethiopian Parliament extended the nationwide state of emergency by 4 months (Africa News, Aljazeera, Washington Post ). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
If you liked this question, try forecasting on whether there will be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before the end of the year or on the next state to experience anti-government mass protests in the Arab world.
This question was closed as "yes, nationwide" with an end date of 1 May 2017. In March 2017, the Ethiopian Parliament extended the nationwide state of emergency by 4 months (Africa News, Aljazeera, Washington Post ). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes, nationwide | 100% | |
Yes, but only in some areas | 0% | |
No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 214 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125 | |
Number of Forecasts | 558 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
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Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Dec 27, 2016 8:04PM PST (124 days before close, question was 14% complete)