The Monkey Cage asks
Who will be elected senator from Nevada this November?
Started
Sep 30, 2016 05:00PM
Closed Nov 8, 2016 06:00PM (9 years ago)
Closed Nov 8, 2016 06:00PM (9 years ago)
Challenges
This question was closed with the correct answer 'Catherine Cortez Masto (D)' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Catherine Cortez Masto was elected senator in Nevada on November 8. (NY Times)
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Former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is challenging Representative Joe Heck (R) for the seat vacated by retiring Minority Leader Harry Reid in a close race (Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post). As Democrats seek to retake control of the Senate, they risk losing Reid’s seat (Associated Press, Wall Street Journal). Recommended Questions Will Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) be re-elected this November? Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) be re-elected this November? Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November?
Former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is challenging Representative Joe Heck (R) for the seat vacated by retiring Minority Leader Harry Reid in a close race (Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post). As Democrats seek to retake control of the Senate, they risk losing Reid’s seat (Associated Press, Wall Street Journal). Recommended Questions Will Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) be re-elected this November? Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) be re-elected this November? Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Catherine Cortez Masto (D) | 60% | |
| Joe Heck (R) | 40% | |
| None of the above | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 198 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 125 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 503 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 349 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Oct 16, 2016 8:52AM PDT (23 days before close, question was 41% complete)