Started
Sep 16, 2016 05:00PM
Closed Nov 8, 2016 06:00PM (9 years ago)
Closed Nov 8, 2016 06:00PM (9 years ago)
Challenges
This question was closed with the correct answer 'No' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte (R - NH) lost her bid for reelection to Democrat Maggie Hassan. (NY Times)
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated
Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte is facing Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan in a tight race (Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post). Ayotte is one of a number of incumbent Republican senators walking the tightrope between criticizing Donald Trump's often unpopular rhetoric and supporting their party's nominee for president, and she has indicated that she will vote for Trump but will not endorse him (Washington Post, CNN). Recommended Questions Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) be re-elected this November? Will North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory (R) be re-elected this November? Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November? Will Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) be re-elected this November?
Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte is facing Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan in a tight race (Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post). Ayotte is one of a number of incumbent Republican senators walking the tightrope between criticizing Donald Trump's often unpopular rhetoric and supporting their party's nominee for president, and she has indicated that she will vote for Trump but will not endorse him (Washington Post, CNN). Recommended Questions Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) be re-elected this November? Will North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory (R) be re-elected this November? Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November? Will Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) be re-elected this November?
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 50.00% | |
No | 50.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 227 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125 | |
Number of Forecasts | 643 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Sep 30, 2016 10:59AM PDT (39 days before close, question was 26% complete)