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 The Mack Institute asks

Will more than 6,000 new battery electric vehicles be registered in Germany in the third quarter of 2016?

Started May 17, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2016 05:00PM UTC

This question was closed on "No," with an end date of 30 September 2016. Kraftfahrt-Bundqesamt, the source for the best-selling-cars report mentioned below, reported 3,321 new battery electric vehicles were registered in the third quarter (Kraftfahrt-Bundqesamt). Germany is launching a 1 billion euro rebate scheme to incentivize the sale of electric vehicles (Reuters). Question will be resolved using the totals from the "Electric" columns for the three months in Q3, July, August, and September at best-selling-cars.com. Registrations of hybrid electric vehicles and plug-in-vehicles will not count. Third quarter registrations in 2015 were 2,722, and include both German (e.g. BMW i3; VW e-Golf) and non-German (e.g. Nissan Leaf; Tesla Model X) models. Question will be suspended on 30 September 2016 and resolved when September's data is released. The new subsidy program, which gives purchasers a discount of 3000-4000 euros for select vehicles, is scheduled to start as early as May 2016. The German government is perceived as wanting to support the German auto companies, which are very important to the German economy, and to draw attention away from the diesel engine scandal of Volkswagen by emphasizing the country’s commitment to “green” technologies. The tax is controversial with some economists, who oppose subsidizing private purchases, and with environmentalists, who see negative impact from a boost in electricity consumption at a time when Germany’s ban on nuclear power plants has made its electricity generation more coal-based. For more information see: The Guardian, Bloomberg, Forbes, The Wall Street Journal. Recommended Questions: Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016? Will any other US state adopt California’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate before 1 January 2017? Will at least 400 employers participate as partners in the US Department of Energy’s Workplace Charging Challenge in 2016?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 278
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 630
Average for questions older than 6 months: 347
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.268919
2.
-0.26185
3.
-0.261162
4.
-0.260888
5.
-0.259704

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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