Will a woman be appointed to be the next secretary general of the UN?
Started
May 17, 2016 05:00PM
Closed Oct 14, 2016 05:00PM (9 years ago)
Closed Oct 14, 2016 05:00PM (9 years ago)
Challenges
This question was closed as "No." On 14 October 2016, the Antonio Guterres was officially appointed as the next UN secretary-general (UN).
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is scheduled to vacate the post at the end of 2016 and the process of selecting his successor has already begun (United Nations, Reuters, NY Times). There has never been a female secretary general of the UN (NBC News, TIME).
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 333 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 125 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1295 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 349 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Aug 4, 2016 12:48AM PDT (71 days before close, question was 53% complete)