When will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement?
Started
May 06, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 24, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 24, 2016 05:00PM UTC
On 24 August 2016 the government of Colombia and the FARC signed a peace agreement, ending more than five decades of war (BBC, Reuters). At that time, the question was closed on option "b) Between 1 July 2016 and 30 September 2016, inclusive." Scores were calculated through the end of 23 August 2016.
Clarification issued 8/15/16: In order to resolve this question, the two parties must agree on the terms of a deal. Ratification or the outcome of the plebiscite are not necessary to resolve this question.
Negotiations continue despite a September 2015 pledge by the Colombian government and FARC to conclude a peace deal within six months (The Guardian, BBC, Colombia Reports).
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Between 1 January 2017 and 28 February 2017, inclusive | 4% | |
| Between 1 October 2016 and 31 December 2016, inclusive | 23% | |
| Before 1 July 2016 | 0% | |
| Between 1 July 2016 and 30 September 2016, inclusive | 72% | |
| Not before 1 March 2017 | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 104 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 125 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 671 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 347 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |