Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?
Started
Jan 21, 2016 03:49PM UTC
Closed Feb 09, 2016 07:59AM UTC
Closed Feb 09, 2016 07:59AM UTC
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This question is asking about win probability, not vote share!
For more information on the candidates, the primary process, and the primary schedule see: Candidates, How the Presidential Primary Works, Schedule.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Rand Paul | 0% | |
| Marco Rubio | 21% | |
| Ben Carson | 1% | |
| Donald Trump | 42% | |
| Jim Gilmore | 0% | |
| John Kasich | 0% | |
| Chris Christie | 0% | |
| Rick Santorum | 0% | |
| Ted Cruz | 32% | |
| Jeb Bush | 4% | |
| Carly Fiorina | 0% | |
| Mike Huckabee | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 1971 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 125 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 3016 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 347 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
