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Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?

Started Jan 12, 2016 06:00PM
Closed Feb 2, 2016 10:00PM (9 years ago)

More than 90% of California is experiencing a 'severe drought' or worse (Drought Monitor). On 1 April 2015, Governor Jerry Brown imposed California's first mandatory water restrictions, requiring a 25% reduction in urban water use until the end of February 2016 (The Economist, CA Executive Order 1). On 13 November 2015, a further executive order ruled that if drought conditions persist beyond January 2016, water restrictions will be extended until 31 October 2016 (CA Executive Order 2). Any extension of restrictions on urban water use will count, even if there are modifications to those restrictions.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 95.00%
No 5.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 512
Average for questions older than 6 months: 125
Number of Forecasts 734
Average for questions older than 6 months: 349
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
2.
-0.005
5.
-0.00481

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 12, 2016 10:34AM PST (21 days before close, question was 0% complete)
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